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Friday June 5 pre-open: an AI-chip air-pocket is rolling into a second day. Broadcom's results (reported ~6/3) beat on EPS and revenue and showed AI revenue more than doubling to ~$10.8B, but its Q3 AI-chip guide of ~$16B came in under the ~$17.2B the Street wanted and CEO Hock Tan declined to lift the >$100B full-year AI target. With the stock priced for a beat-and-raise, that 'good but not good enough' setup knocked AVGO ~15% Thursday and it's indicated down again here (-12.6% vs prior close). The damage is concentrated, not broad: Thursday the Dow actually closed at a record (+1.7%) as money rotated OUT of crowded AI names and INTO healthcare (+2.9%) and financials (+2.3%). That rotation is why LLY is bid +4.3% pre-market while the AI complex bleeds. Within chips the tape is splitting by sub-theme — the Broadcom-adjacent custom-silicon/optics names are heavy (LITE -8.9%, MU -7.7%, CRWV -7.0%, CRDO -6.3%) while memory and the perceived share-takers are GREEN (SNDK +6.7%, MRVL +4.9%, NVDA +1.8%, TSM +1.9%, ASML +1.8%). Read it as an expectations reset and a rotation, not an AI-thesis break — but respect that this is the second down day and let knives finish falling before adding.
Macro: Two overhangs into the open. (1) Jobs: this morning's payrolls print landed much stronger than expected with an upward April revision (~+214k), which is good for the economy but reignites 'Fed higher-for-longer' worry — a headwind for the long-duration, high-multiple AI/software names already under pressure. S&P 500 futures are down ~0.6%. (2) Geopolitics: a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and a dispute over the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil jumpy; watch energy/risk sentiment if headlines deteriorate. Net: a risk-off, rotation-driven session where capital is leaving crowded AI trades for cyclicals and healthcare — favorable for our LLY/memory exposure, a chop-risk for the AI-infrastructure sleeve.
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Wednesday, June 24
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Down -6.3% in the optics/connectivity sympathy selloff despite having just BEAT (reported ~6/1, ~+10% EPS surprise). When a name that just delivered gets sold purely because Broadcom guided light, that's the textbook 'thesis intact, dragged by the group' add setup — handled with discipline given the volatility.
Today's rotation winner — +4.3% pre-market as money fleeing crowded AI trades parks in large-cap healthcare. The GLP-1 franchise (Mounjaro/Zepbound) keeps compounding and the pipeline-via-M&A story is intact; it's the de-facto defensive growth name benefiting from the exact rotation hitting our chips.
Foundry to everyone — Broadcom, Marvell, Nvidia, Apple — so it's structurally insulated from any single customer's guide. Green (+1.9%) on a chip-down day, behaving like the picks-and-shovels winner it is.
The tell that this is rotation, not an AI funeral: NVDA is GREEN (+1.8%) while Broadcom craters. When the group's bellwether holds up on a sector-down day, the selling is name-specific (Broadcom's guide) plus positioning, not a demand scare.
The epicenter. Wednesday's print was actually strong — EPS and revenue beat, AI revenue doubled YoY to ~$10.8B — but the Q3 AI-chip guide (~$16B vs ~$17.2B hoped) and an un-raised >$100B full-year AI target deflated a stock that had rallied into the event. Down ~15% Thursday, indicated lower again. This is an expectations reset, not a thesis break: the custom-ASIC + networking franchise is still compounding.
Hit hard, -8.9%, with no company-specific news — pure optics-group sympathy to Broadcom's AI guide (Lumentum's transceivers/lasers are levered to the same AI-networking buildout). High-beta name taking the brunt of the de-rating.
Caught -7.7% in the chip downdraft, but Micron is a memory story like SNDK, not a Broadcom-ASIC story — and it reports in 19 days (6/24) into very high expectations (some Street whispers see next-quarter guidance well above $34B). This is a pullback into a binary catalyst.
Down -7.6%, the software sleeve's biggest casualty today. ServiceNow sits at the center of the 'will AI commoditize enterprise software or make it essential?' debate, and on a day money is fleeing software that question gets answered with selling. No fresh company news — it's the group de-rating plus its own lingering growth-scrutiny.
Down -7.0%, high-beta neocloud taking it on the chin. CoreWeave is the most speculative way to own AI infrastructure — explosive revenue but heavy losses and enormous capex/cash burn — so on a risk-off AI day it's among the first sold. Its recent quarter showed a wide loss and soft forward guide.
The bright spot — +6.7% and up ~24% in two weeks. Memory is its own super-cycle, decoupled from Broadcom's AI-chip guide: NAND prices reportedly +~60% in Q1, datacenter revenue up sharply on hyperscaler buildouts, and SanDisk has locked in multi-year supply contracts. Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $1,750.
Down -5.1%, but note this is a rare-earths name, NOT an AI-compute play — so today's move is risk-off profit-taking after a strong run (plus some optics from the CEO selling ~$26M of stock in May), not part of the chip story. The Pentagon/rare-earth-independence thesis is unchanged.
The day's standout share-taker: +4.9% pre-market and up roughly a third over two sessions after Nvidia's Jensen Huang shared a stage with CEO Matt Murphy 6/2 and called Marvell a 'next trillion-dollar company,' plus the launch of its 102.4 Tbps Teralynx T100 switch. While AVGO's guide disappoints, the market is treating Marvell as the custom-silicon/optics share-gainer.
Down -4.5%, small speculative lidar name moving with risk sentiment. No company-specific catalyst — it's high-beta exposure to the autonomy/sensing theme getting sold in a risk-off tape.
Down -4.4%, speculative quantum name selling off with risk appetite. Beyond the macro beta, it faces fresh competition after Quantinuum's IPO and ongoing profitability/valuation scrutiny. A small thematic holding, behaving like the high-beta optionality it is.
Strong print, sold anyway. CrowdStrike delivered a clear beat 6/3 (EPS $1.10 vs $0.88), raised forward ARR guidance, and announced a 4-for-1 split — yet it's -2.8% pre-market, dragged by the broad software/AI de-rating. Classic 'company fine, group out of favor.'
Modestly red (-2.1%) — caught in the semicap drift but far calmer than the AI-chip names. Etch/deposition demand is cycle- and capacity-driven, not Broadcom-specific.
GREEN (+1.8%) on a chip-down day — the EUV monopoly sits above the fabless squabble entirely. Whoever wins the AI-silicon socket still needs ASML's lithography, so a single customer's guide doesn't touch the thesis.
The optics name holding firm — slightly GREEN (+1.1%) while peers LITE and CRDO get sold. Relative strength on a brutal optics day says Coherent's diversified laser/networking mix is being treated as higher-quality within the group.
Quiet, -1.0%, barely participating in the selloff. A small IP-licensing name (DSP/connectivity IP) that beat handily last quarter; not levered to Broadcom's AI-chip guide, so it's mostly a bystander today.
Among the calmest names on the board, ~flat (+0.3%). Process-control's near-monopoly position and broad customer base keep it out of the Broadcom-specific crossfire.
Quietly resilient — roughly flat (+0.2%) while the AI-chip names sell. Wafer-fab-equipment demand is broad-based, so AMAT isn't hostage to Broadcom's AI-chip guide. Most recent quarter beat (~+5% EPS surprise).
Flat on the day and the position's biggest underwater holding. It's a telehealth/consumer-health name, unrelated to the chip selloff — it simply isn't participating either way today. Thesis is about GLP-1/telehealth execution, not AI.